NL Liberals Leading Part Way Through Campaign
May 7, 2019

Federal Liberals Lose Support in NL but Remain Top Choice

Introduction

MQO Research spoke with 600 residents of Newfoundland and Labrador to gauge the political temperature in the province for the Spring edition of our quarterly political poll: Atlantic Matters.

Federal Politics

According to the latest polling numbers, support for the Liberals dropped but they maintain a double- digit lead over the Conservatives. Among decided and leaning voters:

  • Support for the Liberal Party dropped 7 percentage points to 49%.
  • Conservative support was relatively unchanged at 37%.
  • NDP support jumped 5 percentage points to 11%.
  • Support for the Green Party held steady at 3%.
  • Support for the People’s Party was also relatively unchanged at 0%.

The undecided / no vote group held steady at 33%.

“Support for the Liberal government is dropping at a very bad time,” said Stephen Moore, Vice President at MQO Research. “The numbers show the progressive coalition that brought Trudeau to government is starting to fracture in Atlantic Canada.”

Government Performance

The mean rating for the leadership of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau dropped sharply from 5.1 last quarter to 4.3 in May (on a 10-point scale).

Leader Preference

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also saw a drop in his personal support numbers. Among decided respondents:

  • Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was the top choice of 47% of voters, down 11 percentage points from January.
  • Support for Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer was up 5 percentage points to 34%.
  • NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh was the top choice among 9% of voters (trended up 3 percentage points).
  • Green Leader Elizabeth May garnered the support of 8% of voters (up 4 percentage points).
  • Support for People’s Party Leader Maxime Bernier was unchanged at 3%.

“We see more challenges for Trudeau when it comes to his leadership numbers,” said Moore. “He still holds a significant lead on Scheer, but an 11 point drop is not good news for his personal brand.”

The Atlantic Matters poll was conducted by telephone from April 25th to May 4th, 2019 and included 600 randomly selected eligible voters from across the province. The margin of error for the total sample is ± 4.0 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

About MQO Research

MQO Research is one of Atlantic Canada’s leading market research firms, providing research insights to clients throughout the region and beyond. Our team includes experts in quantitative and qualitative methodologies and program evaluation. As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), MQO subscribes to the highest standards of information gathering and research ethics in the industry in Canada.

For more information on Atlantic Matters or MQO Research, contact:

Stephen Moore – Vice-President
smoore@mqoresearch.com
Cell: 902-210-5379

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