NL Liberals and PCs Statistically Tied Heading into 2019 Election Year
February 6, 2019
Governing Liberals Hold Lead Over PCs in Nova Scotia
February 13, 2019

Federal Conservatives Gain Ground in NL, Liberals Maintain Sizeable Lead

Introduction

MQO Research spoke with 600 residents of Newfoundland and Labrador to gauge the political temperature in the province for the January edition of our quarterly political poll: Atlantic Matters.

“A notable decline in the number of undecided voters plus a notable drop in NDP support have helped the Conservatives,” said Stephen Moore, Vice-President at MQO. “The Conservative uptick comes after a slight dip in the Prime Minister’s leadership numbers.”

Federal Politics

According to the latest polling numbers, the Conservatives narrowed the gap this quarter, but the Liberals remain comfortably ahead. Among decided and leaning voters:

  • Support for the Liberal Party edged down 4 percentage points to 56%.
  • Conservative support jumped 10 percentage points to 35%.
  • NDP support dropped 8 percentage points to 6%.
  • Support for the Green Party was unchanged at 1%.

The undecided / no vote group was down 6 percentage points to 34%.

“The Liberals and Conservatives are tied in Central Newfoundland but the Liberals have a healthy lead in every other region,” said Moore. “Even though they are statistically tied among males, they have a nearly 40-point lead among females.”

Government Performance

Rating for the leadership of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau trended down slightly with a mean score of 5.1 (on a 10-point scale).

The Atlantic Matters poll was conducted by telephone from January 16th to January 28th, 2019 and included 600 randomly selected eligible voters from across the province. The margin of error for the total sample is ± 4.0 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

About MQO Research

MQO Research is one of Atlantic Canada’s leading market research firms, providing research insights to clients throughout the region and beyond. Our team includes experts in quantitative and qualitative methodologies and program evaluation. As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), MQO subscribes to the highest standards of information gathering and research ethics in the industry in Canada.

For more information on Atlantic Matters or MQO Research, contact:

Stephen Moore
smoore@mqoresearch.com

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