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Drop in Support for Justin Trudeau and the Liberals on PEI

MQO Research spoke with 400 residents of PEI to gauge the political temperature in the province for the Spring edition of our quarterly political poll: Atlantic Matters.

Federal Politics

According to the latest polling numbers, support for the Liberal Party dropped on PEI this quarter.
Among decided and leaning voters:

  • Support for the Liberal Party dropped 12 percentage points to 40%.
  • Conservative support held relatively steady at 32%.
  • Support for the Green Party jumped 8 percentage points to 18%.
  • NDP support was relatively unchanged at 8%.
  • Support for the People’s Party was also unchanged at 1%.

The undecided / no vote group dropped 10 percentage points to 25%.

“These numbers show the SNC affair has really hurt the Liberals on PEI,” said Stephen Moore, Vice-President with MQO. “This is not good news for the federal Liberals this close to an election.”

Leader Preference

After seeing a big drop in his personal support numbers, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is now statistically tied with Conservative Party Leader Andrew Scheer as the top choice for Prime Minister.
Among decided voters:

  • Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was the top choice of 35% of voters, down 17 percentage points from January.
  • Support for Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer was relatively unchanged at 31%.
  • Green Leader Elizabeth May garnered the support of 21% of voters (up 7 percentage points).
  • NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh was the top choice among 9% of voters (up 6 percentage points).
  • Support for People’s Party Leader Maxime Bernier was unchanged at 3%.

“Recent events have hit Trudeau’s personal brand,” said Moore. “Scheer isn’t directly benefiting from the damage – May and Singh are the immediate beneficiaries.”

“We are seeing a fracturing of the centre and centre-left on PEI – that’s not good news for the Liberals.”

Government Performance

The mean rating for the leadership of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau dropped sharply from 5.2 last quarter to 4.1 in April (on a 10-point scale).

The Atlantic Matters poll was conducted by telephone from April 11th to April 16th, 2019 and included 400 randomly selected eligible voters from across the province. The margin of error for the total sample is ± 4.0 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

About MQO Research

MQO Research is one of Atlantic Canada’s leading market research firms, providing research insights to clients throughout the region and beyond. Our team includes experts in quantitative and qualitative methodologies and program evaluation. As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), MQO subscribes to the highest standards of information gathering and research ethics in the industry.

For more information on Atlantic Matters or MQO Research, contact:
Stephen Moore – Vice-President
smoore@mqoresearch.com
Cell: 902-210-5379

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